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Wild Card Weekend Rundown

Stats and analysis for Wild Card Weekend

Sheff
3–4 minutes
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Browns v Texans:

  • Lets recognize, with a win today, Joe Flacco becomes the QB with the most road wins in the playoffs, he will pass Brady. Flacco 5-0 in the Wild Card round
  • I’m looking for the Browns defense to get CJ Stroud and this Texans offense in 3rd and long. Over the past 4 weeks, Browns have a 3rd down conversion rate of 16% when defending a 3rd and long, 6th best in the NFL / On the flip side, Texans offense converting on 3rd and long in the last 4 weeks is tied for th 8th worst in the NFL
  • One betting trend I saw, QB’s making their first career postseason start against a QB with playoff experience are just 17-35-1 against the spread (33%) and about the same straight up since 2002. The QB making his postseason debut loses and fails to cover about 2 out of every 3 times

Dolphins v Chiefs:

  • Cold and snow slows everything down which does not fair well for a team who is defined by speed, Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane, Achane who had an amazing rookie season, in the 11 games he played he recorded almost 1,000 from scrimmage, 4 games over 100 yards and one with 203 yards.
  • Achane’s success comes from the perimeter run game, the Dolphins toss to him and give him the ability to show off his speed and cuts, coupled with motion, he is dangerous on the outside. NOW, I do think the Chiefs are going to have an easier time setting the edge in the cold and with some kind of snow on the ground. The secondary will have their hands full with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but if winds are whippin, I’m not relying on a team that lives in south beach
  • Dolphins are 1-5 vs playoff teams, allowing over 32 points per game / 10-1 vs non-playoff teams, allowing over 17 points per game

Upset:

  • I think Matt Stafford disappoints Detroit one last time and beats the Lions at home with an upset.
  • Lions first home playoff game in 3 decades, playing another in-door team in the Rams
  • This game comes down to Stafford picking apart one of the leagues worst pass defenses. Detroit ranks 27th in passing yards against with an average of 247 yards per game, even worse, in their L3 games giving up an average 351 YARDS, YIKES. Now you got to cover Puka and Cooper Kupp!?
  • Lions saftey blanket, Sam LaPorta also questionable

Best QB Performance: Dak Prescott

  • He gets to lean on CeeDee Lamb, 9 straight games with a TD, most catches by a WR this season by a wide margin, 135 receptions. Nobody has thrown more TD’s this season than Dak
  • Aaron Jones needs to get goin, finished the season with 100 yard rushing games / Jordan Love, 2nd most TD thrown by a QB this season, he can play relaxed, expectations were not that high after Rodgers left
  • Green Bay has not been great stopping the run this season, their defense ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed per game, BUT have vastly improved over the last 3 games allowing an average of less than 80 rushing yards a game / Dallas has struggled to get the running game going, ranked 14th in rushing yards a game, so I can only think, if the success of the running game is the same as its been, they will rely on Dak to take over this game. Getting up early will be a big advantage for the Cowboys as well, taking the air out of this Green Bay team, let them know they do not belong

Generational Wealth Parlay:

  • Browns -7
  • Raheem Mostert First TD
  • Rams ML
  • (+7121)

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